Betfred Ebor Handicap (York Saturday 25th Aug 2012)
Run over 1m6f the Betfred-sponsored Ebor Handicap is open to horses aged 3 or older and is run at York racecourse this Saturday at their 4-day Ebor Festival Meeting.
Andy Newton looks back at past winners and gives you the key trends ahead of Europe’s most valuable flat handicap race.
Recent Ebor Handicap Winners
2011 – Moyenne Corniche (25/1)
2010 – Dirar (14/1)
2009 – Sesenta (25/1)
2008 – All The Good (25/1)
2007 – Purple Moon (7/2 fav)
2006 – Mudawin (100/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (11/1)
2004 – Mephisto (6/1)
2003 – Saint Alebe (20/1)
2002 – Hugs Dancer (25/1)
Note: 2008 renewal at Newbury over 1m3f
Key Ebor Handicap 10 Year Betting Trends
8/10 – Had 3 or more runs that season
8/10 – Winners from a double-figure stall
8/10 – Winning distance - 1 length or less
7/10 – Won over at 1m4f or further before
7/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/10 – Winners that carried 9-0 or less
6/10 – Favourites unplaced
5/10 – Run at York previously
4/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – Won their last race
2/10 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/10 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/10 – Ran at Galway last time out
1/10 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011)
1/10 – Winning favourites
Luca Cumani has won the race in 1999, 2004 & 2007
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
Verdict: The money has been non-stop all week for the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Motivado, who we last saw winning in facile fashion at Goodwood earlier this month. He dotted up by 5 lengths that day and if in that form again should go close. However, unless you are already on at a much bigger odds the value has all but been squeezed out of his price now, while it’s worth noting this race has been a bit of a graveyard for favourites in recent years - just win winning jolly since 1999.
Add in that 7 of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure price, including a 100/1 success back in 2006, then this 1m6f contest is no stranger to throwing up the odd shock.
So, although he’s not going to be much bigger than 10/1 the forgotten horse in the race could be the Luca Cumani-trained QAHRIMAN (e/w)
. The yard has targeted this valuable handicap with success three times in recent years, most recently in 2007, and having won over course and distance last time is another positive. Yes, he’s up another 6lbs here, but has only had 7 career runs so there should be plenty more improvement for the Cumani team to eke out of him, so under Kieren Fallon, who rode winners for this yard at York
on Wednesday and Friday, he can go clos - the overnight rain is also another factor in his favour.
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