France’s most famous middle distance horse race of the season

Andrew Newton

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Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Guide

They’ve been dropping like flies his week ahead of Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – France’s most famous middle distance horse race of the season.

First it was last year’s winner Danedream, who was scrapped from the contest after an outbreak of equine flu was discovered in Germany - where she’s trained. Desperate luck for connections as she’s already had a great season and was sure to make a bold bid in becoming the first horse to land back-to-back Arcs since Alleged back in the 70’s.

Next up was John Gosden’s Nathaniel, who, after having a bad blood test on Tuesday, was the next big name to go. This year’s Coral-Eclipse winner was another that looked sure to play a leading role, but it’s not all bad news as the yard still have Great Heavens in the race, who was supplemented on Thursday, and she’s not without a chance! Should the ground come up really soft then this improving 3 year-old certainly enters calculations – while with 8 of the last 10 renewals going to the Classic generation then she fits one of the key trends.

Looking at the betting now then the Japanese-trained Orfevre will be popular, especially if the punters from his gambling-loving nation get behind him on the day. He won here at Longchamp last time out in the Prix Foy – a recognised Arc trial – and with over £7.7million in prize money already banked then this would be a great story for racing if he can take the prize back to Japan. However, he looks a tad on the short side in the betting to me, and despite clearly being top-class this will be the hardest opposition he’s faced to date and at the price he’s overlooked.

The draw will be a key factor too – so wait until that comes out on Friday. If the last 10 years are anything to go by then you really need your fancy to hail from stall 8 or lower. The last horse to win from a double figure draw was the classy Dalakhani back in 2003.

Of the others, Saonois is interesting and looks another 3 year-old on the up. He’s two-from-two at Longchamp, including his most recent win when taking the Prix Niel – another decent Arc trial – last month in eye-catching fashion.

The horse, however, I think will take all the beating is CAMELOT. Yes, the price has somewhat gone after the ‘will he, won’t he run’ antics during the week and now we know he does, and that a certain Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride then his price has only been going in one direction – down!

This year’s Derby winner is on somewhat of a recovery mission after his shock St Leger defeat last month, but back to 1m4f will surely suit, while connections have nothing to lose as he bids to further enhance his stud value. He seems to act on any ground, plus he’s got plenty of trends on his side including the recent record of Epsom Derby winners in the race. Sea The Stars and Workforce both did the Derby/Arc double in the same season and providing he doesn’t get a high draw then I think this 3 year-old can give trainer Aidan O’Brien his second win in the famous race and jockey Frankie Dettori his fourth Arc victory.