Saturday Newmarket Betting Guide
Horse racing trends expert Andy Newton runs you through the LIVE C4 races from Newmarket this Saturday.......
1.55 - Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £56,710 CH4 1m
The mighty Frankel took this race back in 2010, so connections of this year’s winner will be licking their lips. Irish trainer, Aidan O’Brien, has raided these shores with success to take 3 of the last six running s of the Royal Lodge and with that in mind his Afonso De Sousa is certainly one for the shortlist. However, the form of his recent York third in the Acomb Stakes has taken a few knocks since and with all of the last 10 winners having won at least twice (Alfonso has just one win to his name) before then he’s overlooked.
The second in that York race was STEELER, and the fact he’s since followed up with a gutsy win at Goodwood suggests there could be more to come from this Mark Johnston-trained juvenile. He fits plenty of the key trends, including being foaled in March (8 of the last 10 winners were born in Feb or March), while the yard are also no strangers to winning this contest, having landed the spoils in 2008.
Of the rest, the John Gosden team run Excess Knowledge and although he’s got a bit to find on the book this is another yard that often do well in this race and he could go well at a fair price.
2.25 - Jaguar Cars Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £92,721 CH4 6f
This race is often a good guide to the 1,000 Guineas next season, with 8 of the last 10 winners going onto run in that Newmarket Classic, while two fillies have done the double in the last 10 years. However, the biggest trend in this race is that 9 of the last 10 winners were foaled in either February or March.
With that in mind, and that all 10 recent winners finished first or second in their previous race and that 9 had run within the last six weeks then everything points to ROSDHU QUEEN running a huge race. Foaled in February, this unbeaten filly is three-from-three after winning the Lowther at York last time out. It’s no secret the William Haggas team think a lot of her and although any ease in the ground would be an unknown she looks the class act in the field and can take this Group One.
3.00 - Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £90,736 CH4 1m
Sir Henry Cecil holds a strong hand here with both Chachamaidee and Beauty Parlour. The former was runner-up in this race 12 months ago and after winning a Group One over in Ireland last time comes here at the top of her game. However, I’d be worried if any rain came for this one, with all her best efforts coming on faster surfaces, and, therefore of the Cecil pair I’d prefer Beauty Parlour.
She’s done all her racing in France and this will be her first run for the Cecil camp. All her runs have been with some degree of ‘soft’ in the description and a recent second over 1m3f means she won’t lack for stamina in the closing stages – she’s respected.
My pick, however, is going to be ELUSIVE KATE, who hails from the John Gosden team. She was an excellent second to Excelebration last time at Deauville and if that horse was in this line-up you suspect he’d be favourite. She seems to act on most ground, but the fact she’s had a nice 6 week break means she comes into this race a bit fresher than some of the others, while the 3 year-olds have won 6 of the last 10 renewals of this Group One race.
3.40 - Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) Winner £99,600 CH4 1m1f
As always and ultra-tricky race to call with 30+runners – so I’ve added some key Cambridgeshire trends to hopefully help you whittle the field down. There will be plenty of horses that fit a lot of the stats so at some point you’ll have to take a view yourself too.
For me, Mukhadram, Edmaaj and Dragonera are interesting, but the one that could go well at a fair price is JACK’S REVENGE (e/w) down the bottom of the weights. This George Baker-trained 4 year-old has been running well all season – finishing in the top three on all his last six starts – while it’s interesting that connections have booked top French jockey Gerald Mosse to ride. He was only beaten ½ length in a 20 runner race at Goodwood last time and despite being another 2lbs higher this time he always seems to try, while if there is any ease in the ground this will be in his favour too.
Cambridgeshire Betting Trends
10/10 – Aged 6 or younger
10/10 - Carried 9-5 or less in weight
9/10 – Won 3 or more times in their career
9/10 – Carried 9-3 or less
9/10 – Won over 1m2f before
8/10 – Won from a double-figure stall
8/10 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
7/10 – Rated between 90-100
7/10 – Had 5 or more runs that season
7/10 – Unplaced favourites
7/10 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price in the betting
6/10 – Finished 5th or better last time out
6/10 – Carried 8-12 or less
5/10 – Ran at Newbury last time out
2/10 – Trained by John Gosden (won the race in 1994 too)
2/10 – Winning favourites
1/10 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 years was 24/1
Luca Cumani trained the winner in 1982 & 1986
Sir Mark Prescott trained the winner in 1988 & 1997
blog comments powered by