Andrew Newton
St Leger Betting Guide
10/09/2012
St Leger Betting Guide
This Saturday sees the final English flat horse racing Classic of the season – the Ladbrokes St Leger.
Run over 1m6f at Doncaster racecourse the race is for 3 year-olds only, and this year it’s all about one horse – CAMELOT.
The Aidan O’Brien-trained colt is now unbeaten in 5 starts and after landing this year’s 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby is trying to become the first horse since Nijinsky (1970) to land the English Triple Crown. Add in an Irish Derby win back in June then this high-class horse is already as short as 1/3 in the betting ahead of Saturday’s feature contest and being rated a full 9lbs superior to his nearest rival then it’s hard to see anything but a sixth straight win.
Those against him will cling to the fact he’s running over this 1m6f trip for the first time, but the way he’s been winning over 1m4f recently suggests he could be even better now upped in trip and by all accounts he’s been running all over his stable mate Fame And Glory – one of the yard’s best cup horses - at home.
A win on Saturday will see this top class horse cement his name into the racing record books, and having already won on the Town Moor track, when running away with last season’s Racing Post Trophy, then that’s a further tick in the positive box.
One of his main threats will come from the in-form William Haggas yard as they’ve confirmed Guarantee as a runner last week. He’s got plenty to find on the book having only won at Handicap level, but the fact connections are pitching him in at this level suggests they think he’s a lot better than a mere handicapper and he looks a horse on the up.
Of the rest, trainer John Gosden has landed this race for the past two seasons and he’s once again mob-handed as he looks for the hat-trick. A lot will depend on which horse his number one stable jockey William Buick decides to ride, with Thought Worthy and Michelangelo the main ones to pick from.
Thought Worthy was the surprise winner of the Great Voltigeur at York last month and that race has often been an excellent Leger guide in recent years.
13 horses have won that trial before landing the Leger, while 5 of the last 10 winners just contested that York race before heading to Doncaster.
With that in mind Main Sequence and Thomas Chippendale, who were second and fifth in the Voltigeur, are the others that enter the calculations and both should appreciate the extra yardage.
However, all of the above horses look like vying for a place at best as CAMELOT looks a class above this lot and although the odds are on the short side there really should only be one winner this Saturday and with that we can all witness the first Triple Crown winner since 1970!
Key St Leger 10 Year Trends
10/10 - Placed last time out
10/10 - Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
9/10 - Had never raced at Doncaster before
9/10 - Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
8/10 - Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 - Had won a Group race before
8/10 - Placed favourites
8/10 - Winning distance of 1 length or more
7/10 - Had won over at least 1m3f before
6/10 - Won last time out
5/10 - Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it)
4/10 - Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/10 - Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/10 - Won by John Gosden
3/10 - Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/10 - Ridden by William Buick
0/10 - No winner drawn in stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
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