William Hill Ayr Gold Cup
Ayr Gold Cup Betting Guide
This Saturday sees the William Hill-sponsored Ayr Gold Cup take centre stage, and with 20+ runners hurtling over 6f then it’s always been one of the biggest betting handicap races on the flat racing calendar.
Run at Ayr racecourse in Scotland, it’s also a contest that has thrown up some cracking trends in recent years – for example since 1980 we’ve only seen one winning favourite!
Horse racing trends expert Andy Newton takes you through the main things to look out for when assessing the 2012 renewal......
Betting: With all of the last 10 winners returning at a double-figure price then don’t be afraid to look at the bigger-priced runners, while I’ve already mentioned there has been just one winning favourite since 1980. In fact, 8 of the last 10 jollies were also unplaced – the average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/1
Recent Form: 90% of the last 10 winners failed to win their previous race, so don’t worry too much if your fancy didn’t win last time out. However, 6 of the last 10 did finish in the top 4 in their last race – so it could be better to focus on horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out.
Runs That Season: With 8 of the last 10 winners having had 7 or more previous runs that season then if this positive trend is to be repeated then it could pay to note horses that have had plenty of outings already that season.
Recent Runs: Checking where a horse ran last time out can also be an advantage as a massive 8 of the last 10 winners ran at Doncaster, Goodwood or Haydock last time out.
Career Wins: It goes without saying that having won races before is a plus, but those that have tasted victory 3 or more times during their careers have held the best recent record – winning 80% of the last 10 renewals.
Age: This is simple – ignore any horses aged 6 or older as we’ve seen just 4 winners in that age bracket land the prize since 1980. 4 and 5 year-olds have by far the best record with 7 of the last 10 winners going to horses fitting those age groups.
Weight: Being a handicap then the runners will be given different weights to carry based on their proven ability, but with 7 of the last 10 winners carrying 9-2 or more then it could pay to concentrate on those at the top of the weights.
Draw: With a maximum field of 27 runners then the runners will be drawn right across the course. However, if recent years are to be repeated then you can ignore the horse drawn in stall 1 – not a single horse from that draw has even hit the frame in the last 10 years. With 7 of the last 10 winners hailing from a double-figure draw then take this into account, but it’s also worth having one eye on the Bronze and Silver Cups run earlier at the meeting as these are consolation races run over the same trip and can often throw up some draw clues.
Fillies and Mares: It’s not been the best race for the females with not a single filly or mare taking the contest in the last 10 runnings
Track Form: With 5 of the last 10 winners having raced at Ayr before then previous experience of the course is a plus.
Trainer Form: In recent years trainers Kevin Ryan and David Nicholls have dominated this 6f sprint – winning it six times between them in the last 10 years, while Mr Nicholls has actually landed the spoils 6 times in all during the races history.
Ayr Gold Cup Betting Trends
10/10 - Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/10 – Failed to win their last race
8/10 – Had 7 or more runs that season
8/10 – Unplaced favourites
8/10 – Rated 90-100
8/10 – Ran at either Doncaster (4), Goodwood (2) or Haydock (2) last time out
8/10 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
8/10 – Had won over 6f before
7/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/10 – Carried 9-2 or more
7/10 – Came from a double-figure stall
6/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/10 – Winning distance 1 length or less
5/10 - The first two home coming from a double-figure stall
5/10 – Had raced at Ayr before
4/10 – Trained by David Nicholls (won the race 6 times in all)
2/10 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/10 - Placed horses from stall 1
0/10 – Winning favourites (1 winning fav since 1980)
0/10 – Filly or mare winners
Since 1980 just four winners aged 6 or older
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/1
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